links for 2007-09-29

September 29th, 2007 12:17am
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links for 2007-09-25

September 25th, 2007 12:17am
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Looking at September 07 SPX options expiration

September 20th, 2007 9:11pm


Here’s a graph of the open interest in Sep07 SPX options. Unlike your typical equity option which settle based on opex Friday’s close, most index options settle based on the opening value of the S&P 500 index on expiration Friday.

This leads to interesting dynamics like last month, when Ben Bernanke cut the discount rate just before the market open on Friday. A lot of fund managers went to bed Thursday with good looking option positions that got crushed Friday morning when S&P 500 components gapped up at the open.

Thursday SPX cash closed at 1518.75. I come up with around 1490 for max pain. (”Max Pain” is the settlement value that will result in the lowest aggregate value for the open contracts at expiration.) This, and the big run up since the unexpected 50bps rate cut on Thursday, suggest a lower bias going into tomorrow’s open, which we would see in the futures. ESZ7 (December S&P futures contract) closed Thursday at 1531.75.

links for 2007-09-10

September 10th, 2007 12:17am
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Yahoo Finance message board sentiment indicator

September 9th, 2007 9:56pm

Barry Ritholtz points out the new community sentiment feature, part of the new front page for Yahoo Finance.

Stock message boards are a fascinating place to scan through from time to time, containing a mix of informed, uninformed, and sometimes deliberately misleading posts. On average, the post volume and prevailing sentiment is probably a good contrary indicator. Part of what makes stock message boards interesting is the sheer volume of misdirection and general noise. At the same time, there are a smaller number of board posters that contribute more than blind cheerleading or bashing their chosen stocks.

Another season begins

September 9th, 2007 9:55pm

This weekend we had our first game for the fall 2007 AYSO soccer season. Once again, I’m coaching, this year in the U12 Girls division. It’s an interesting change, as in Palo Alto there is no U11 league, it goes from U10 to U12 as the kids start shifting into different sports and activities and the player pool shrinks a little.

Revisiting Pandora

September 9th, 2007 9:34pm

I ran into Tom Conrad at Barcamp Block a few weeks ago, which reminded me to go check out Pandora again. I’d been an early adopter when they introduced it to the folks at the very first Barcamp, but accidentally stopped using it a while back when I changed out the computer in my office that I’d been running it on. I recently swapped in another system, and among other things I have it running Pandora again.

I like being able to launch a station with a single suggestion and get a few hours of “more stuff like that”, especially when it turns up something I haven’t heard before.

Here’s a sample “station” that I’m listening to at the moment, constructed starting with a track from Rick Braun, which has turned up selections from Larry Carlton, Jeff Golub, Joyce Cooling, and the Brecker Brothers on its own.

links for 2007-09-09

September 9th, 2007 12:16am
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links for 2007-09-04

September 4th, 2007 12:16am
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links for 2007-09-01

September 1st, 2007 12:17am
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